The biggest single race of the year, by many standards is upon us; the "First Saturday in May" - the Kentucky Derby . For myself, it will be the 26th that I've wagered on. The first year was 1986, which also was the last time a horse won from post position #1. Only three other horses from there have finished in the money all, third. This is just one of the Kentucky Derby tidbits that I'll be discussing this week.
In the last 33 years (since 1979) only four favorites were victorious. There was a 21 year gap between Spectacular Bid in 1979 and Fusaichi Pegasus in 2001. Big Brown was the only favorite to paid under double digits in that time frame ($6.80). This year, favoritism will most likely fall between Bodemeister and Union Rags (4-1 & 9-2 on the morning line). It's possible that one of these two colts may pay under $10.00, but won't be a short price as Big Brown was four years ago. The average win mutual the since I played my first Kentucky Derby has been nearly 14-1. This high odds average may be a result of two horses (Giacomo & Mine That Bird) going off 50-1 during this time period. It's worth a flyer taking a longshot in this mile and a quarter test.
It's not necessarily a given that the "favorite" runs second in this race either. Only four times since 1986, has the favorite run second (Easy Goer, Prairie Bayou, Captain Bodgit & Empire Maker). So, much like I construct my selections; it pays to use a square priced horse in the runner-up position in this race. Horses running in the show position have been a price in recent results with the last favorite Indian Charlie running 3rd in 1998. All these results mean one thing, BIG, BIG payouts in the exotics.
The payouts for the exactas, triples and superfectas have been the way to make your racing season. The average exacta payout - $765.00 and since the mutual field was abolished in 2001, the payout has been; $1,445. Again, when you take into consideration that there have been two 50-1 shots winning the Derby , you can see why these payouts are so big. The next two stats could be considered " life changing" results. The average triple has been just over $14,000 and superfecta, a whopping $102,000. It's probably a good idea to throw in "longshot" in the fourth superfecta position, because 7 out of the 8 four place finishers have been over 23-1 or more.
Other things to keep in mine when wagering on the Kentucky Derby are; only one two year old champion since the Breeder's Juvenile has been contested, has won the Kentucky Derby (Street Sense). Dead closers figure in major payouts also in the top four, with 5 in the last 6 years between odds of 24-1 and 50-1. Horses prepping at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas have placed in the superfecta plays the last eight straight years. You don't necessarily have to win your final prep race to win the Run for the Roses. Less than half (10) have done that the past 25 years. But, no horse finishing 5th or worst has won in that same time period. It's been nine years since a Wood Memorial placed runner has won the Derby, a combine 0 for 16 since Funny Cide and Empire Maker ran one / two in 2003. The latest trend has been, only two starts as a three year old before the Derby . The past five winners have done this. There is a lot of speed entered to this year's Derby . Ten year's ago was the last "wire to wire" winner (War Emblem) and there have been only five others since 1966. And don't look for a "photo" finish result, that last one was in 1999 between Charismatic and Menifee. The last seven Derby were won by 2 lengths or more. This is a little "food for thought" when wagering today, good luck to all and let's make some money!
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