When the longshot winner of Kentucky Derby 138 - I'll Have Another; crossed the finish line, it meant the record I have for choosing correctly the "Run for the Roses" winner was now (4-28) and five years since Street Sense (my top pick) was victorious. He wasn't on my radar at all, which I'll explain with my "lessons learned" for this year's "big" race.
The winner; I'll Have Another went off at "fair" odds in my opinion (15-1). The son of Flower Alley (2005 Jim Dandy & Travers winner at Saratoga ) had a five month break between being unplaced in the sloppy Hopeful Stakes and his 43-1 victory in the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, early in February. This was my 1st strike in picking against him. There is a old saying; "If you missed the wedding, don't go to the funeral" and he was a longshot that time and should be again, even if he did win the Santa Anita Derby by a nose in his next start at 4-1. Reason #2 - his jock; Mario Gutierrez lack of experience in stakes races, especially one this big! In reality, he fits this colt like a glove (2 for 2 on him) and only had ridden at Santa Anita Park and Hastings Park in Canada before his Derby win at Churchill Downs . Reason #3 - the second to far outside post with the jock experience and longshot pricing leading up to the race, he was a "play" against. He is your typical "horse I leave out of the mix" runner that's overlooked and not on my ticket.
Runner up finisher; Bodemeister ran the race of his life as the post time lukewarm favorite. He lived up to every expectation. Setting all the fast fractions while pressured by the other speed in the race, he gallantly hung on for second place. Much like Curlin from five years ago, this colt has a bright future and if he wheels back next week in the Preakness Stakes......he'll be the favorite. I will use him in the exotics again.
Third and fourth place finishers; Dullahan & Went the Day Well were logical horses to use underneath for triples and superfectas. The 3rd place finisher; had his usual late kick, but it seems he is more effective on turf or polytrack than the dirt surface at Churchill Downs . The Graham Motion / John Velazquez trainee was quite impressive with blinkers on and big middle move in closing late. This horse will be in my top 3 next week at Pimlico and has bright future ahead also.
As for the "also rans" that I selected; my top pick Union Rags, lost all chance at the beginning and had another questionable ride from Julian Leparoux. It was a wonder that he even finished as well as he did for 7th place. He'll be skipping the Preakness and pointing toward the Belmont Stakes where he could be a factor.....with a better ride! My runner-up horse; Daddy Nose Best was no factor at all. Another "wise guy" horse who failed to live up to expectations. Both Todd Pletcher runners; Gemologist and El Padrino were no shows too. It was especially disappointing with Gemologist, who I took a liking to late last week.
Of the twenty horses in the Kentucky Derby , less than half will attempt the second leg of racing's Triple Charm next week. Sometimes a "new shooter" will play a part in the race, but the best of those new faces will be running in the Peter Pan Stakes today at Belmont Park ( The Lumber Guy). Overall, plenty of horses had rough trips and other than the top five finishers......none did any running late. I still think that this group is a great crop of three year old runners. But, improved has to be shown by the also-ran runners next week and the weeks to come.
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