The quote of this young meet so far for myself is; "Trust your own instinct. Your mistakes might as well be your own, instead of someone elses." This quote from famous American director, Billy Wilder comes into play when it comes to selecting and handicapping thoroughbred runners. It couldn't be more clear than this past Wednesday as I worked on creating a "Pick 6" ticket for a double carryover going into the card. As I discussed in last week's column, my "play of the day" wager will have ALL the winnings donated to the victims of recent flooding in the Fort Plain area. With such a big carryover, I thought of putting a little pick six ticket together for a chance of possibly making a huge score and nice little donation to my hometown people. It was a tough sequence, but with a little work I came up with a $24.00 ticket.
I worked on different versions in creating how many horses I would use in races 5 through 10. The 1st leg was quite a "head banger" to say the least! Race #5 was a six furlong maiden claiming race that was wide open. I loved the #7 Lady Halite which was 10-1 on the morning line and eventually went off at 5.70 to 1 odds. I figured to use two other horses also, the #4 Mama Zee and #6 Inaflash, which these two runners ran first and second. By using three horses in leg #1, I was alive with a $11.60 horse.
Race #6 was a very good high priced optional claimer for 100k with a lot of familiar names entered. Here was my 1st "single" play with the #10 Mr. Commons (2-1) dropping from stakes action to this level. This race was won a 10-1 shot, Seal Cove for Shug McGaughey and halted my chances of hitting the pick 6 all by myself. Still with four legs to go, there was a very good chance of getting 5 out of 6 consolation payout. Race #7 was the first of two races taking off-the-turf and this is where I made my first change, which I would regret later
I still used my "top" selection which was a turf runner; #9 Corinthianna, but also used a horse with the best main track "dirt" form; #3 My Cousin Zinny who went off as the post time favorite. When I made this change, I took one horse out of the final leg in the 10th race which also came off-the-turf. This would keep my dollar amount the same ($24.00) for the play, just by adding in the 7th and deleting one in the 10th. Needless to say, I should have just stuck to my original instincts and just use the #9 who won and paid $11.20 to win.
The next two legs (8th & 9th) were won by the favorites, so heading into the finale 10th, I was alive with 4 out of 5 winners. I was getting a little excited with the prospect of possibly having a winning 5 out of 6 consolation pick six ticket that was a 1.2 million dollar pool. But, unfortunately the ticket I created the night before was subjected to change by myself because of the two races being taken off-the-turf. I said to my wife Karen, anyone but the #5 can win this race and if the #5 wins....... I'm going to be real upset!
The dirt form in the 10th maiden claimer was much like the 1st leg of today's pick 6. In fact, the post time favorite went off at final odds of 4.30 to 1. I needed the #3 Show Some Lovin to win and he sat second until mid stretch and faded to 3rd in the end. Unfortunately, the horse I tossed out late, #5 Where's Danny, who had NEVER raced on dirt, came charging up and won going away. The result was a $388.50 "5 out of 6" payout, which if the races stayed on the turf in the 7th and 10th, would have gave the people of Fort Plain a nice donation of help from yours truly. I should have trusted my instinct and have no one to blame but myself! This will be a tough one to get over, but I promise to make it up and have 35 more days to keep my promise to my hometown and win them some money!
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