Friday, August 23, 2013

Travers '82 ........ a "redux" in 2013????


Well, unlike the past few running's of the Mid-Summer's Derby ; The Travers, we get the best three year olds of 2013. With the expectation of Oxbow and Normandy Invasion, all the other cast of characters are here. It's a big difference from last year with the historic "dead heat" between Alpha and Golden Ticket where each horse has done very little on the track since then and also three year's ago where Afleet's Express upset the field and was never heard from again. Yes, it seemed the days when "great" three year old runners like; Easy Goer, Holy Bull, Point Given and Bernardini had become a thing of the past!

This year we are very lucky to have the Kentucky Derby winner, the Belmont Stakes winner, the Haskell Stakes winner and Jim Dandy winner. Three very worthy and logical favorites that will make up the top three betting interests. All three have done very little wrong and seem not to have holes in the resume. Palace Malice won the final leg of the Triple Crown and came back to win the prep race for today; the Jim Dandy Stakes. Verrazano was quite impressive in the Haskell Stakes and his only question is the mile and a quarter distance. Orb won the Kentucky Derby at this distance and like the other two runners have been consistent all this year. I see these three runners all being in the betting range of 8-5 and 5-2. It's makes it tough for me to rate one above the other.

Looking back at the history of the Travers Stakes when three similar talented horses faced off, I went back to 31 years ago in 1982. That year, all three Triple Crown race winners appeared in the Mid-Summer's Derby . The Kentucky Derby winner; Gato Del Sol, Aloma's Ruler winner of the Preakness Stakes and Conquistador Cielo all made it Saratoga on August 20th facing off in a historic edition of this race. This was the first time that this happened and all eyes were on these three runners. But, a horse from Canada named; Runaway Groom, who himself was quite capable shipped down to the Spa and beat all three runners in a major upset. After watching the race, I thought to myself; can this same thing happened again this year?


The factors are somewhat the same. We are missing the Preakness winner; Oxbow, but having Verrazano as his replacement is more than adequate. Although there is no other horse entered with quite the same credentials as Runaway Groom, there is one horse who recently won a graded stake at the Travers distance of a mile and a quarter, albeit on the "proper surface" grass. This longshot runner; War Dancer, first caught my eye back in April during a race at Keeneland. This son of stakes winning sprinter; War Front was unprepared at the start and broke dead last of 12 from the inside post. Racing very "rank" early on, he rallied late and got up at the finish to win. His next two races were average running 2nd and 3rd on the weeds. But, his last start in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs going a mile and a quarter on grass, he came into his own. Winning by a head, just getting up at the wire was the effort that has made him a top turf contender. But instead of racing at Arlington Park last weekend on their turf championship day, he shows up in the Travers Stakes entries.




Now, I'm taking a flyer here by selecting War Dancer to win this prestigious race. But, after watching the 1982 Travers race and the result when the three top three year olds were beaten by the "longshot", I thought to myself it could happen again! It would be no surprise if one of the three; Orb, Palace Malice or Verrazano won. But, since Saratoga is sometimes considered the "Graveyard of Favorites" taking a longshot here isn't so out of the realm. Expect the unexpected and cash a "big time" ticket!


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