Last week we discuss the top Kentucky Derby contenders and their consistency in winning major derby prep races since the beginning of the year. American Pharoah and Far Right continued that trend with a one / two finish in the Arkansas Derby last weekend. That solid group of runners will be between 5-2 and 15-1 in odds come the first Saturday in May. This week, we'll look at the other half of the group. These horses will be anywhere between 15-1 and 30+ to 1. Longshots in the wagering that will spice up the exotic plays. With eighteen runners solidly in the field of twenty runners, this group should make up the remainder of the field.
First up is Firing Line, west coast runner trained by Simon Callaghan who won the Sunland Derby by 14 lengths in his last start. Runner-up behind Dortmund in his two previous starts, this pace-presser looks to be a solid longshot play who should be double digits in the wagering. Irish bred invader, Mubtaahij won the UAE Derby by eight lengths and has won four out of five dirt races all at Meydan Racetrack in Dubai. Trained by Michael de Kock, his most recent victory gained him 8-1 closing odds in the final Kentucky Derby Futures pool. An unknown factor stateside, he'll pay around a $40 mutual if he's successful at Churchill Downs. The third Todd Pletcher runner in which I forgot to mention last week is Itsaknockout , who was placed first in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. In his last start in the Florida Derby, he was a no factor fourth beaten 21 lengths. Horses usually don't rebound well off efforts like that in the Derby and look for him to be a rank outsider with a $50 win payout in odds.
Bob Baffert may have the first two betting interests in this year's Derby, but will also have this interesting longshot. One Lucky Dane, was runner-up behind his stablemate last start in the Santa Anita Derby and makes his third start off a layoff. Only one bad race in his career, he looks to be a solid price who will have to improve versus a large field on derby day. Along with aforementioned last horse, the next three horses were runner-up finishers in their final prep races for the derby. Danzig Moon, Tencendur and Stanford all got the place spot in their most recent starts. Two of the three runners (Stanford & Tencendur) held the lead in the stretch, only to be over taken late. Stanford, from the Pletcher quartet has flashed speed in both his two-turn route races. He'll add speed to the mix along with the N.Y. bred runner; Tencendur who was behind Frosted in the Wood Memorial at 21-1.Danzig Moon has the look of a stalking runner and was 15-1 behind Carpe Diem in the Bluegrass Stakes. All three of these runners will be near 30-1 in the odds and were no match for the horses who finished in front of them last out.
We round out the probable field of twenty runners with the rank outsiders in the field who undoubtly will be between 30-1 and 50-1 in the morning line odds. War Story, Mr.Z, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Bolo and Keen Ice haven't impacted any of the recent prep races. War Story couldn't get close enough to International Star in any of the Louisiana prep races and that winner may be 10-1 or better in the Derby. Mr. Z adds speed to the Derby with only a maiden victory to his credit, plus when he tires likes to bare out in the stretch. Keen Ice is another runner with only a maiden win and no early foot. Both Bolo and Ocho Ocho Ocho are still on the fence whether they run, but neither has made a real impact in their prep races.
It comes down to a separation point in the Derby group of twenty runners. The 6 to 12 runners with a legitimate chance to finish in the top three and eight to ten other runners that would like to hit the board at double digit odds. Any way you cut it, the payouts in this year's Derby will have value even if the upper crust runners finish in the exotics.
No comments:
Post a Comment