The final piece of the 2015 Kentucky Derby prep trail concludes today with the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. It features American Pharoah, last year's two year old Eclipse award winning thoroughbred trained by Bob Baffert. He has been one of the leading runners since last summer as a juvenile and makes his second start this year as a three year old looking to further his favoritism ranking for the First Saturday in May. He along with last weekend's prep winners; Carpe Diem in the Bluegrass Stakes and Dortmund in the Santa Anita Derby they are the likely top three colts in the betting for this year's Derby. It's been a path of likely winners this year on the Road to the Kentucky with the 23 prep races since January.
Six runners reached the winner's circle multiple times (Dortmund, Carpe Diem, International Star, El Kabeir, Far Right and Upstart). Although, Upstart was placed second after winning the Fountain of Youth for interference with Itsaknockout in the stretch run. Eight of the prep race winners were odds-on at post time, with only four paying double digits and just one (International Star) with a mutual over twenty dollars. The winning payout has been $6.40 making this one of the most formful road of derby prep races in recent years. Unlike the previous when there was a standout Derby favorite or a group of runners that was undistinguishable making a high price favorite, this year's group is a solid bunch of horses that have accomplished a lot so far this year.
The above six mention horses make up the top contenders along with American Pharoah, Frosted, Far Right and Materiality. That's half the Kentucky Derby field with a legitimate shot of winning it all. With a American Pharoah victory today, he could possibly be the post time favorite in three weeks. But, it will be tough to deny Dortmund that status because of his undefeated five race winning streak to begin his career. These two Baffert runners harkens back to 1998 when he had the Derby favorite; Indian Charlie and eventually winner; Real Quiet. So, it 's most likely that he will have the top two horses vying for favoritism once again.
Todd Pletcher may have the most runners entered, but not likely the post time favorite. Carpe Diem and Materiality are his two leading runners with longshots Stanford and possibly another runner from today's Arkansas Derby; Madefromlucky. There are other consistent sorts who have won multiple prep races and may be overlooked. International Star has sweep all three preps at the Fairgrounds and Far Right will try to win his third stake at Oaklawn Park today. Upstart, El Kabeir and Frosted also have danced every dance this winter and spring and can't be discounted. This makes a group of three year old that have been consistent and with an equal shot in many ways, at a variety of prices.
I'm looking at between 5-2 to 3-1 for the post time favorite and possibly a half dozen other runners who will be under 10-1. The longshots for this year's Derby may all be grouped from 15-1 to 30-1. It's doubtful we'll see anything near the 50-1 range in this years field. Like always, the exotic payouts will be good even if those top six runners show up in the final finish. But, one thing is for sure and that is the 2015 Kentucky Derby will showcase the most accomplished group of thoroughbred three year old runners in quite sometime. They're races this year up to this point have bee that indicated and hopefully this group will stay together after the Derby and Triple Crown races. This is a plus for the sport, especially the future. Exciting times are ahead the next few weeks!
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