Thursday, May 5, 2016

Mark Hoffman's 2016 graded Kentucky Derby selections

Nyquist (#13) Gutierrez / O'Neill (3-1)

This son of Uncle Mo comes from the connections who won the 2012 edition of this race, undefeated in his seven career starts, he will be trying to become the first undefeated horse to win the Run for the Roses since Big Brown in 2008, this two year old Juvenile champion is the horse to beat and his credentials are just as good as American Pharoah's one year ago.

Suddenbreakingnews (#2) Quinonez / Von Hemel (20-1)

This dead come from the clouds closer rallied in his three starts this year at Oaklawn Park for today's start and his connections are relative new to the Triple Crown trail, he will benefit from a hot pace up front and can land a piece at big odds, the double digit longshot you need to fill out your exotic plays!

Exaggerator (#11) KJ Desormeaux / JK Desormeaux (8-1)

This hard hitting son of Curlin had a breakout victory in the Santa Anita Derby by winning over six lengths on a sloppy sealed racing surface, the most visually impressive prep race victories, he'll try to turn the tables on my top selection who he's yet to beat when they faced each other, a must use in your exotic plays .

Gun Runner (#5) Geroux / Asmussen (10-1)

Top Derby point winner this year, he won both his starts at the Fairgrounds as prep races for today, winner over the track also, he may be overlooked in the wagering and offers solid value in this race, would be no surprise winning here!

My Man Sam (#6) I. Ortiz / Brown (20-1)

Lightly raced runner is getting better in each start, his come from behind running style mirrors my second choice, look for him to continue to improve and be running late, lots upside with this runner.

Shagaf (#16) Rosario / Pletcher (20-1)

Came up a clunker in his final prep race the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on muddy sealed track, may have not liked the that racing surface and I'm willing to forgive that effort, will be a square price today.

Outwork (#15) Velazquez / Pletcher (15-1)

Nearly went wire to wire on the Aqueduct sloppy sealed surface in the Wood Memorial, draws favorable outside post and with his speed could be dangerous, may be the "wise guy" horse today!

Mohaymen (#14) Alvarado / McLaughlin (10-1)

The main competition to my top selection early on the Kentucky Derby trail with an undefeated record until his last start, didn't fire in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream on a good race track, willing to forget that effort..... but must move forward!

Brody's Cause (#19) Saez / Romans (12-1)

Returned to the winner's circle in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland in his last start, his grinder running style bodes well in the Kentucky Derby, would be no surprise to get a piece here, he never seems to take money in his starts..... nor will he today.

Destin (#9) Castellano / Pletcher (15-1)

Winner of both races at Tampa Bay Downs this prep season, this son of Giant's Causeway has fallen under the radar because of the gap between his last race and today, that's a lot to overcome, but has drawn a favorable post..... your call.

Creator (#3) Santana / Asmussen (10-1)

Finally put it together in his last start, the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park rallying late for victory, took six starts to break his maiden and may be rounding to form, tough to gauge with only two victories in eight career starts, mixed signals.

Mor Spirit (#17) Stevens / Baffert (12-1)

Second best in last two prep races in California, failed to move forward..... but is consistent, his post has never won the Kentucky Derby, not using this one in any of my plays.

Whitmore (#10) Espinoza / Moquett (20-1)

Raced evenly in all three starts at Oaklawn Park, another who has failed to move forward along the Derby prep trail, no hat-track for jockey Victor Espinoza today!

Mo Tom (#4) Lanerie / Amoss (20-1)

Trouble plague runner got into the field late and has had an world of excuses both on track and by his trainer, can't see this one being a real threat off his prep races, leaving this one off all my tickets.

Danzing Candy (#20) Smith / Sise (15-1)

The wire to wire winner of the San Felipe Stakes, he wilted on the off-track in Santa Anita Stakes last, draws the far outside and may be the main speed, question whether he wants to go this far, toss.

Tom's Ready (#12) Hernandez / Stewart (30-1)

Second best at a huge price behind Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby, with only a maiden victory in nine career starts, this one seems very up against it versus this grade I field.

Majesto (#18) Jaramillo / Delgado (30-1)

Much like Tom's Ready above, this runner was second behind Nyquist in the Florida Derby at a price coming off his maiden breaker, the connections here are also new to the Kentucky Derby scene, can't see him improving enough to be a factor.

Trojan Nation (#1) Gryder / Gallagher (50-1)

This runner who is bred to run all day has yet to break his maiden, the first runner entered to the Derby like this since Nationalore in 1993, came up the rail to photo for 2nd in the Wood Memorial, drawing the rail doesn't help his chances either, toss!

Lani (#8) Take / Matsunaga (30-1)

This Kentucky bred, Japanese based runner won in the desert the UAE Derby to gain entry to this race, the son of Tapit can be a head case on the track, can't see him having any shot with his antics.

Oscar Nominated (#7) Leparoux / Maker (50-1)

Winner of the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on polytrack to get points for this race, originally not nominated to this race and was supplemented, a Ramsey runner with NO CHANCE here!


Also eligible : Laoban (#21) & Cherry Wine (#22) ~ if horses scratch










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