We have a PATTERN forming here ...... and a good one!

I wanted to start my column off with a definition of a word that seems to be getting a lot of play recently in my world and the word is; pattern. Pattern, the definition in Merriam-Webster's dictionary is "regular and repeated way in which something happens or is done, something that happens in a regular and repeated way." We think of these actions when it comes to a regular and continuous result. Whether we consciously know we are doing them or it becomes second nature, a pattern forms when normal events return time and time again. In the world of thoroughbred racing, one pattern stands above all others, a horse in the spring winning three races in a row on the highest stage; the Triple Crown.

We saw just that less than a year ago when American Pharoah started his quest to make racing history by winning the Kentucky Derby. Many times before, three year old runners tried to duplicate a Derby victory with two more in the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Some got the first two legs, but most failed the final one. That was until last year. When American Pharoah got the job done, visions of the last horses to sweep the Triple Crown appeared in my head. It had been many years, since 1978 when Affirmed battled Alydar in a classic for the ages, three race competition. Just one year before that, Seattle Slew did the hat trick as an undefeated three year old horse. And only a few years prior to that, the great Secretariat captured the world with his tour-de-force of the Triple Crown. From 1973 to 1978, there was a "pattern" forming in the thoroughbred world.

Now, we flash forward to the last three years along the Triple Crown trail. In 2013, the Shug McGaughey trained; Orb won the Kentucky as the lukewarm favorite. Although he failed in the next two races, the betting people found a quality runner to make favoritism in the toughest race of the year. But, the pattern grows more apparent the next two. A unheralded horse from California, found the right spot to get good at the right time. California Chrome in 2015 glided through the first two legs of the Triple Crown much the best and as the favorite in both races. While he came up a bit short in the Belmont Stakes that year, the pattern of three year old runners winning as the betting favorites was coming true. Of course last year, American Pharoah sealed the deal as the favorite to win all three races and the Triple Crown. Three horses, all favorites winning six of the nine Triple Crown races in a three year span. Not since the heyday's of Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed have we seen a simliair "pattern".

Now, we have a solid favorite for this year's edition of the Kentucky Derby in Nyquist, a undefeated three year old runner who patterns much like last year's winner and Triple Crown hero; American Pharoah in many ways. But, the main pattern here is that we will be trying to have the Kentucky Derby post time favorite, win the Run for the Roses for four straight years! This is something that hasn't been accomplished since 1975, when previous four Kentucky Derby winners were all favored at post time. This stat goes back even farther than American Pharoah breaking the Triple Crown jinx last year! And in my opinion, Nyquist will break that streak today and become the fourth straight Kentucky Derby post time favorite to win the blanket of roses. This is a real "pattern" that may lie for the future and just maybe Déjà vu, all over again on this year's Triple Crown trail. It would be nice to have that pattern we had in the mid seventies in thoroughbred racing. I believe it's going to happen and starting today with a Nyquist victory in the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby.