As I write this column on Thursday evening like I usually do, the field for 137th Kentucky Derby is set at this point. But, questions remain whether the possible favorite for the race and last year's two year old champion will be in the starting gate at 6:24pm this Saturday evening. Rumors were swirling mid-day Thursday that Uncle Mo could possibly scratch as late as Saturday afternoon and a team of veterinarians would keep tabs on his condition. Cryptic words from his owner; Mike Repole and no comment from his trainer; Todd Pletcher made lots of internet fodder on blogs and horse racing message boards. So, as I type this column, Uncle Mo staying in the race was a mystery.
But, there are 19 other runners in the race and I honestly can say almost half of them have more reasons not to win the race than they do to win it. First off, there is not one runner who has had a triple digit Beyer speed figure as a three year old. Only one horse has won more than one Derby trail prep race this year (Dialed In - Holy Bull Stakes and Florida Derby ). Two horses (Master of Hounds & Animal Kingdom) have NEVER raced on "real" dirt, thus their debut on it will be in the Kentucky Derby . Others like; Comma To The Top, Brilliant Speed, Twinspired and Derby Kitten are winless on the main track also. This could be a product of the synthetic track craze. The runners entered this year have been taking turns beating each other in the prep races. While horses like; Nehro, Santiva, Decisive Moment and Shackleford have yet to win stake race this year as a three year old. So here is half the field listed with more question marks, than things going for them today.
On a paper, both Uncle Mo and Dialed In are the "class" of the field. They'll vive for favoritism and most likely be close to each other in the wagering. So the other eight remaining had have a stake victory along the Derby Trail, they'll get a bit of credit for that. Both Watch Me Go and Twice The Appeal won stakes race at huge odds. In the biggest race of their careers, both will be huge odds again and long odds to repeat their winning performances. Soldat and Stay Thirsty won their earlier preps, but in their last race were off-the-board finishers. It's been awhile since a horse who finished worst than fourth in their final prep race, came back to win the Kentucky Derby . Mucho Macho Man, Pants on Fire and Archarcharch are logical contenders winning prep races along the trail and not doing well in other preps. That leaves one horse, that doesn't quite fit in any of these categories. But, he has one "major" hurdle to clear. One that has remained through the years of time.
The trend that this three year old will be bucking has remain steadfast for nearly 130 years. Midnight Interlude won the Santa Anita Derby coming off his maiden win in his previous start. That isn't the big deal, the thing that is; Midnight Interlude made his on track debut January 29.......of this year! That's right, he did not race as a two year old. The last horse to win the Kentucky Derby that didn't race as a two year was; Apollo......in 1882! It's a mighty hill to climb, but with so many question marks among the other runners, including one of the favorites......he's worth a shot here and is lightly raced, improving horse. It doesn't hurt either that he is trained by Bob Baffert, who has won a Kentucky Derby or two! In a year as confusing as this, something strange is going to happen. I'll take a chance with Midnight Interlude to rewrite history, 129 years later!
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