Midnight Interlude (#15) Espinoza / Baffert (10-1)
Came off his maiden win to score in the grade I - Santa Anita Derby, this improving son of War Chant is on the up swing and is worth a shot at a price versus this group of three year olds, the ONLY strike against him is; he was unraced as a two year old, maybe this year the streak that has lasted for 129 years could be broken like the other Kentucky Derby myths.....the time is now for this angle to fall.
Dialed In (#8) Leparoux / Zito (4-1)
The only two time prep winner in this year's Derby field, this son of Mineshaft has a powerful late close which he's shown in all four career starts, his trainer ran 2nd in this race last year (Ice Box) and has won two Kentucky Derby's in the past (Strike the Gold & Go for Gin), the "horse to beat" in my opinion.
Stay Thirsty (#4) Dominguez / Pletcher (20-1)
The stablemate and lesser thought runner to my above selection, he looked real winning the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and then shipped to Gulfstream Park for the Florida Derby and was "up the track", that looked like a "non effort" to me and I still can't figured out why he shipped from New York to Florida for that race, if Uncle Mo falters......"my friends, Stay Thirsty" may surprise us all!
Master of Hounds (#11) Gomez / O'Brien (30-1)
This well bred European runner tries the dirt main track for the first time in this spot, ran gamely for 2nd in the UAE Derby on a synthetic surface in his last start, whether he run a lick on the main track remains a question......but, has got the breeding to get the distance and will be a price!
Mucho Macho Man (#13) Maragh / Ritvo (12-1)
One of the more consistent runners along the Derby trail this spring, hasn't raced since the end of March which is a slight concern, has the running style to be right there at the finish, maybe not a winner....but, a must use in ALL your exotic plays!
Nehro (#19) Nakatani / Asmussen (6-1)
Has become the "wise guy" horse off his last two closing efforts leading up to today's race, seems like he'll enjoy the mile & a quarter distance and will make his presence felt late, he'll be "overbet" in my opinion and I need 10-1 on him or better in the win slot before I wager on him.
Soldat (#17) Garcia / McLaughlin (12-1)
His wire to wire victory two starts back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes shows he'll be a pace factor (hopefully) in today's race, as the favorite in the Florida Derby, he was rated off the front end, this did not work and he'll have to be free running to have a chance today, moves up if the track is wet.
Archarcharch (#1) Court / Fires (10-1)
The 25-1 winner of the Arkansas Derby has veteran trainer; William "Jinks" Fires & jockey Jon Court in their first Kentucky Derby , his bandwagon has picked up steam.....but, draws the tough inside post at Churchill Downs , needs a alert start and trouble free trip to have a chance today.
Animal Kingdom (#16) Albarado / Motion (30-1)
Trainer Graham Motion lost his other runner (Toby's Corner) earlier in the week because of injury and is left with this runner trying "real" dirt for the first time, had a decent work over the surface here and like Master of Hounds; will be a price with really nothing to lose.
Shackleford (#14) Castanon / Romans (12-1)
He set the pace in the Florida Derby and just missed at 69-1, he's another horse that now has a "bandwagon" to jump on off that effort, I'm sure he'll be on the "engine" again today, but he couldn't last at nine furlongs.....will he get the extra distance day???
Pants on Fire (#7) Napravnik / Breen (20-1)
Was considered the "weaker" part of the entry when he won the Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds, should be forwardly placed once again, this young trainer does well with his two year old stock and his jockey was the first woman to win the Fairgrounds riding title.
Comma To The Top (#6) Valenzuela / Miller (30-1)
Just before his start in the Santa Anita Derby, his connections were going to skip the "big" race, but after just missing at the wire in that prep race.....they changed they're mind, looks like one of the "speedsters"and I question whether he'll get the distance.
Santiva (#12) Bridgemohan / Kenneally (30-1)
He was an even 2nd two starts back in the Risen Star Stakes and then wheeled back in the Bluegrass Stakes where he was no factor as the lukewarm favorite, his ONE bright spot was that he won a two turn stake race here at Churchill Downs as a two year old, could be the "monster" price you're looking for in the superfecta.
Twice The Appeal (#3) Borel / Bonde (20-1)
This winner of the Sunland Derby at 25-1 broke his maiden for a 30k claming tag and now is in the Kentucky Derby , with the addition of Calvin Borel in the irons....he'll be ridiculously over bet, his odds should be closer to 50-1 than what they'll be!
Decisive Moment (#5) Clark / Arias (30-1)
This longshot has stayed in the Derby picture since early January, some pundits say that this horse may make the lead, because of connections he may be one of the longest prices on the board in the end.
Brilliant Speed (#2) Rosario / Albertrani (30-1)
Closed like a rocket to get a nose on the wire at 19-1 in the Bluegrass Stakes, his two dirt races as a two year old sprinting were horrible, doubt he'll be too effective on "real" dirt with his running style.
Twinspired (#10) Smith / Maker (30-1)
got nailed at the wire by top pick, his only dirt race wasn't good either, another you can firmly toss!
Derby Kitten (#9) Castellano / Maker (30-1)
Only got into the race with his Lexington Stakes victory and Toby's Corner not making the race, looks like just a turf / polytrack horse to me!
Watch Me Go Bejarano / O'Connell (50-1)
Longshot winner at 43-1 in the Tampa Bay Derby, came back to show nothing as the favorite in the Illinois Derby versus grade III field, putting him below the synthetic horses really shows my opinion of him!
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