A wise man once said; "The best laid plans of mice and men often go astray". Not a better quote for this year's Kentucky Derby trail for yours truly. I was quite excited last Fall when a nice two year old colt from the Shug McGaughey barn made a name for himself on the NYRA racing circuit. His name was Honor Code and in my last column for 2013 I was singing the praises of this juvenile. I ended that column with this paragraph; "With what we've seen so far this year with the Juvenile runners, the group is evenly matched with no runner head and shoulders above the rest. Just in the two starts that Honor Code has made, he has the right connections with the right breeding and that exciting running style to be a force next year as a three year old. Next week in the Remsen Stakes here at Aqueduct, going the two-turns for the first time, Honor Code just may be the exciting horse that will turn heads next spring leading up to the 2014 Kentucky Derby". Unfortunately, he would only race once this year and then go on the sidelines with a minor injury. Meanwhile, there was another horse in the McGaughey barn that was just as talented, if not more. Top Billing had major potential with his three races at Gulfstream this past winter. He was being pointed toward either the Florida Derby or Wood Memorial when once again, a injury put him out of commission and out of the Derby. I saw a pattern starting with horses I liked for the First Saturday in May.
That leads us to this past Thursday morning. I was going to try and buck a 132 year old jinx or trend. After weeks of three year old prep races, I was already to select the Bob Baffert trainee; Hoppertunity. Even though he was unraced as a two year old (the last Derby winner who fit that same profile was Apollo in 1882) he had a foundation this year with five starts and two solid efforts in graded stakes competition. He was the alternative to the morning line favorite California Chrome in my opinion. I split the 20 horse field into two separate categories, the contenders and the no shots. There were several of my 10 contenders which figured, but were hard to use in my top spot. As I was ready to work on my graded Derby entries, I found out the news that Hoppertunity was a scratch for this year's Derby. Disappointment reigned again with my top Derby pick, this time only two days before the race. One time before in 1992, years before I was a public handicapper, my top selection; AP Indy was scratched the morning of the Derby. That year, Azari was the odds-on favorite, I went against him finishing in the money. I was right on that count, but with nothing to show for as my other picks were "up the track". Most recently in two different Belmont Stakes, my top picks were also early scratches after the draw. In one case, a horse was going for the Triple Crown (I'll Have Another). But, when it comes to this race; the Kentucky Derby, losing a horse you really like so close to the big race, really really hurts!
Here are my selections for the Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby stakes undercard (races 6 thru 11). Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (6th) : 3/9/1/4 ~ Humana Distaff (7th) : 3/8/2/6 ~ American Turf (8th) : 8/4/5/11 ~ Churchill Downs Stakes (9th) : 4/11/10/2 ~Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (10th) : 1/10/7/3 ~ Kentucky Derby (11th) : 16/5/8/19.
My pick 6 stakes play : 3- 3/8- 8- 4/11- 1/10- 5/16 ($32) good luck!
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