when several of your horses along the Derby prep trail fall by the wayside, you look to the horses that finished behind them, this Starlight runner ran behind Honor Code & Cairo Prince last Fall in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct going a mile and an eighth, had a sharp workout over the Churchill strip and gets Johnny V in the irons, can set the trip as a mid pack runner behind the speed, this is a timid choice at best.
California Chrome (#5) Espinoza / Sherman (5-2)
this popular California bred runner deserves favorism in the 140th edition of this race, his three races at Santa Anita are the sharpest of any in this field and is definitely the "horse to beat", my only question mark with him is; how he'll react when he is pushed by the other speed horses & how he'll race at a track away from the west coast.
General A Rod (#8) Rosario / Maker (15-1)
I've been following this runner since New Year's day when he had a nice win in the first Derby of the year at Gulfstream Park at a mile, followed that up with a 2nd & 3rd in the other two major preps there and runs for new connections today, was an even 2nd over the Churchill strip as a two year old and will be a square price here.
Ride On Curlin (#19) Borel / Gowan (15-1)
consistent sort only shows once out of the money in nine career lifetime starts, trainer has him and only two other runners in the barn, has a tough post to go from & you get hurt with his odds because of Calvin in the irons, good exotic play.
Tapiture (#15) Santana / Asmussen (12-1)
winner of a grade II stake over the track as a two year old, started the year off good with a victory and place at Oaklawn in their stake preps, had a dud in the Arkansas Derby as the 2nd choice finishing a dull 4th, may rebound today at a track he likes, Santana returns to the irons today, don't over look!
Candy Boy (#18) Stevens / Sadler (15-1)
intriguing longshot closer disappointed in the Santa Anita Derby finishing even 3rd with no late kick after showing one in the RB Lewis Stakes in his previous race, has to maneuver from the outside & show he can also run well away from the California tracks, should be a factor late.
Wildcat Red (#10) Saez / Garoffalo (15-1)
the speedy Sunshine state runner has out run his pedigree in his two turn races at Gulfstream, today he meets other speedy types and gets a true test today on the front end, he may not get the Derby distance..... but, will go down fighting with his gutsy efforts.
Danza (#4) Bravo / Pletcher (8-1)
upset winner of the Arkansas Derby at 41-1 for Mr. Pletcher, never raced two turns before that race, third start off layoff, could be the "now" horse or could bounce from that effort, still don't know what to make of him...... but would be no surprise in this year's field.
Samraat (#6) Jose Ortiz / Violette (15-1)
solid NY bred had his five race undefeated streak snapped in the Wood Memorial, but was game in defeat coming back again to be 2nd best, hopefully would get cooked in a speed duel with the other front runners, game as any in this field!
Wicked Strong (#20) Maragh / Jerkens (6-1)
returned to form with a going away victory in the Wood Memorial, draws the far outside post..... but is a closer, will make presence felt in the stretch, likely the 2nd choice.
Medal Count (#14) Albarado / Romans (20-1)
another closer who has shown versatility on all three surfaces, his two stakes on real dirt..... he showed nothing, but did break his maiden at Ellis Park in a off-the-turf event, best of the polytrack runners in my opinion.
Uncle Sigh (#3) Irad Ortiz / Contessa (30-1)
the other NY bred, broke slowly in last with wide trip and was no factor, gets an equipment change today with BLINKERS ON, trainer had the best quote of Derby week about this runner...... look it up!
Vicar's in Trouble (#1) Napravnik / Maker (30-1)
wire to wire winner of the Louisiana Derby in his last start, has got real "trouble" with tricky inside post, Rosie may be forced to "go" from the spot & get involved a speed duel, hasn't been training the best either...... toss!
Dance With Fate (#12) Nakatani / Eurton (20-1)
closing winner of the last Blue Grass Stakes on polytrack at Keeneland, has become a "wise guy" longshot runner by some....... not me!
Chitu (#13) Garcia / Baffert (20-1)
winner of the Sunland Derby was a question mark running in this race, had shoe problems in recent workout here, Baffert's last bullet after the scratch of my original top pick in this race; Hoppertunity.
Commanding Curve (#17) Bridgmohan / Stewart (50-1)
late entry to this race after his stable was declared this past weekend, trainer had 2nd place longshot closer last year; Golden Soul, not much to say about this runner who is similarly to that runner-up, maybe a superfecta play.
Harry's Holiday (#2) Lanerie / Maker (50-1)
finished 13th in the 14 horse Blue Grass field, another that could add speed on the front end.
Vinceremos (#9) Rocco / Pletcher (50-1)
stopped and finished dead last in the Blue Grass, a 4th or 5th tier Pletcher runner, toss!
We Miss Artie (#7) Castellano / Pletcher (50-1)
connections have made it clear...... this is a prep race for the Queen's Plate at Woodbine in a few weeks, bet him then!
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