We've come down to the final three weeks of prep races for this year's Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown trail. It's a "Traffic Light" series in my opinion, three weeks with seven races where horses will continue to the First Saturday in May "green" , remain in a holding pattern along the Triple Crown "yellow" or leave the trail all together "red". It starts today with the "Gulf coast swing" where we have the Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds and the Florida Derby at Gulfstream. Both are mile and an eight prep races and mark the first two entries that will get the green light for May 6th.
First up is the Louisiana Derby (FG 11th) grade II event with a field of nine entered. Risen Star winner - Girvin (#8) tries to make it two in a row after a solid win at 8-1. Risen Star also-rans; Local Hero (#3) and Guest Suite (#6) return with new shooter contenders - Patch (#1), Senior Investment (#4) and Monaco (#5). Todd Pletcher has had a strong hand this year on the Triple Crown trail and today his two recent maiden winners get the call here for me, Patch and Monaco. Both are lightly raced and figure here versus this group. The three horses from the Risen Star Stakes you can't dismiss here and figure to be the ones to beat; Girvin, Local Hero and Guest Suite. I'll use those three below the Pletcher duo. The numbers for the Louisiana Derby (FG 11th) : 5/1 - 8/3/6.
The Florida Derby (GP 14th) has the number one rated three year old from my list; Gunnevera (#11) who gets the far outside post. Winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes in nice style, he'll have to overcome his draw. His running style helps things and is the definite horse to beat here. State of Honor (#1) just held second after leading the Tampa Bay Derby in his last start at 9-1. He gets blinkers OFF and draws the favorable inside with his speed. These two are my top selections. Underneath, the other two speeds - Always Dreaming (#4) trained by Todd Pletcher and Three Rules (#10) figure, along with new shooter Impressive Edge (#8) who stretches out after a impressive victory at seven furlongs. Another Pletcher runner; Battalion Runner (#8) who is a contender here but will scratch and contest either the Wood Memorial next week at Aqueduct or more likely the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn in two weeks. The numbers for the Florida Derby (GP 14th) : 11/1 - 8/10/4.
Last week; Thunder Snow, a Godolphin runner stamped himself a place in the starting gate the First Saturday in May with a hard fought victory in the UAE Derby. His 100 points with the win, moves him to the top of the point standings. On the other hand; at Turfway Park in the Spiral Stakes; 24-1 longshot - Fast and Accurate got a quick 50 points with a win, but is NOT a Triple Crown nominated runner. The Sunland Derby last Sunday gave Steve Asmussen another runner in Hence at 10-1. This weekend is also the final weekend of the 2017 Kentucky Derby future wagering pool. Five of the 23 runners are in action this weekend (Always Dreaming, Girvin, Guest Suite, Gunnevera and State of Honor). El Areeb who won two Aqueduct Inner-track prep races this past winter, injured himself in a workout at Laurel and is off the Triple Crown trail. He is also listed on the final future pool list and his wagers should be refunded.
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