We've reached the final major prep on this year's Kentucky Derby trail and not a moment too soon! It's been a year where logical favorites have gone to the wayside. Last weekend, Irish War Cry redeemed his bad effort in the Fountain of Youth Stakes with a sharp going away effort after stalking in the Wood Memorial. Meanwhile, the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland was upset with the maiden; Irap winning over the best Derby prep field so far this season. Then on the west coast, in the wide open Santa Anita Derby had an old favorite also redeem himself with victory as Gormley bounced back from his non-effort in the San Felipe a few weeks back. One prep race left, one last chance for a runner to gain those important points to make the Derby field and one chance for the two year old champion of last year to redeem himself.
When the dust settled last Fall, Classic Empire won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and the championship in January. He has had one start this year, a lack luster third as the 1-2 favorite in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. But then the bottom fell out on this talented son of Pioneer of the Nile. After that race, it was revealed he had a foot abscess, forcing him to miss his next start. Then there were issues with him during his workouts and refusing to go to the track. It was determined he had back issues that could have been the blame for his actions. He left Gulfstream Park, relocated to a farm in Ocala and he has rebounded with improved works. Shipping to Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, he has shown his two year old form and it's all systems go for today.
But, he'll need a top effort because he is on the borderline of making the Derby field. Currently he has 32 points which is currently 21st on the list. If he cannot have a top four finish, he may be on the outside looking in the First Saturday in May. It's likely he'll make the field even with a sub par effort, but his trainer Mark Casse said without a solid top three finish, he'll skip the race. But with the uncertainty along the Kentucky Derby prep trail so far this year, there is bound to be one horse to get it right and win when he is suppose to. I feel that Classic Empire, the morning line favorite for the Arkansas Derby will do that today. And all bets are off for a longshot winning in three weeks, since Classic Empire is the BEST horse left in the very deep and confusing crop of three year old Derby hopefuls.
Like I said, I've been a big fan of Classic Empire since his victory last Fall and his effort today hinges on me possibly cashing some Kentucky Derby future wagers on him on May 6th. One Liner I thought was his main competition in the Arkansas Derby, but Todd Pletcher has pulled from the Kentucky Derby trail because of poor workout efforts and he's not racing today. So, Classic Empire looks the horse to beat in this field of twelve runners. My play for the runner-up spot is a price and the runner up in the Sunland Derby; Conquest Mo Money. He held second with a big move and has already run the mile and a eighth distance of today's race. After these two; horses like Malagacy, Untrapped and Petrov figure to get a piece and also be Kentucky starting runners with good efforts today. The play for the Arkansas Derby is : Classic Empire (#2) with Conquest Mo Money (#11) and Malagacy (#12) - Untrapped (#9) - Petrov (#4) in the third and fourth spots.
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