We've reached the "meat and potatoes" of the prep races on the Kentucky Derby trail today with three crucial events in New York, Kentucky and California. Nearly a dozen runners from the top 25 contenders will try to gain points and get a spot in the starting gate the First Saturday in May. Last weekend, Todd Pletcher added his sixth runner to the mix with Always Dreaming winning the Florida Derby and at the Fairgrounds; Girvin won the Louisiana Derby and became the only two time prep winner this year. The Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby, all a mile and eighth will determine the next three major players.
The Wood Memorial (AQU 10th ~ 5:52 post) is first up with eight runners entered. The last Wood Memorial winner to repeat in the Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. In fact, the last in the money runner from this race to get the roses was Funny Cide in 2003. A prep race with little effect on the Derby in recent years has three main players; Cloud Computing (2nd in the Gotham) Irish War Cry (Fountain of Youth winner) and Battalion Runner, a highly regard Todd Pletcher trainee. The later, needs points to gain entry to the Derby with at least a top three finish. Battalion Runner is facing stakes competition for the first time, but some regard him as Pletcher's best of six runners. Cloud Computing is lightly raced with only his third career start but has the Apollo curse as being unraced as a two year old. I'm leaning toward a winner over the track here last Fall going this distance. Mo Town (#2) was no factor as the favorite in the Risen Star Stakes coming off his two year old campaign layoff. Winner of the Remsen Stakes here last Fall, his 6-1 morning line odds look real appealing. Battalion Runner (#3) is my second choice and gets a real class test here (I have him in the final Derby future pool at 26-1). The numbers for the Wood : 2-3-7-8.
The Bluegrass Stakes (KEE 10th ~ 6:17 post) has come up the strongest of the prep races this year, even though there are only seven runners entered. Four of the seven entered could be the favorite post time at Churchill in a few weeks. The longest gap exists for winners of this race, winning again in the Kentucky Derby. The last was Strike the Gold in 1991, 26 years ago. I've been a huge fan of Practical Joke (#7) ever since his maiden victory at Saratoga last summer. His trainer Chad Brown could have stayed in Florida and raced last weekend or shipped to New York today. But he chose this spot for the son of Into Mischief, he is my top choice. For second, Tapwrit (#4) has come into his own off his last two races at Tampa Bay. Once again, he could have waited until the Derby to race again because he currently has enough points to get in (54 pts) but is entered today. My selections here are; 7-4-2-3.
The Santa Anita Derby (SA 8th ~ 6:30 post) has had the most consistent winners once again winning five weeks later in the derby (California Chrome & I'll Have Another) most recently. But this year's edition with 13 entered in the most wide open and full field in many years. Bob Baffert would have had the favorite in Mastery if he didn't get hurt. While he has two runners entered today, once again I'll lean toward the runners with the most experience during the derby prep races this year. Even though his post is a killer, Royal Mo (#13) is my top selection. Back class and speed, if he can negotiate the outside and get position, he could be a steal at his 10-1 morning line odds with Gary Stevens aboard. My runner-up pick is Iliad (#9) second best behind Mastery in the San Felipe first time going two turns. My play in this wide open event is : 13-9-6-5.
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