It became an eventful beginning of the Derby week with the announcement that the likely favorite; Eskendereya had declared from the race last Sunday morning. I was kidding myself, did I jinx him last week with my column or was I a genius to state the obvious. At least this year, we knew that the “horse to beat” wasn’t going to be in the field a week out. Last year, I Want Revenge was a defection the day before the big race. With the Pletcher trainee out of the picture, my focus became on two horses and two horses only!
I knew that the “price” on Sidney ’s Candy was going to take a hit at the windows. I was thinking of odds possibly as much as 8-1 or better, quickly turned to a $10.00 mutual or less. Even with the questions of first time “natural” dirt and his front running speed, I think that the educated horse players would say that Sidney's Candy and Lookin at Lucky were the horses to beat. But, that would change once again Wednesday afternoon when the derby post position would be drawn.
When the “pills” came out of the bottle and the entry sheets were drawn, both Lookin at Lucky and Sidney ’s Candy got the worst case scenario. First, the Baffert trainee got post position #1 and then next the likely second choice drew post #20. Not good for the followers of either horse! This compounded with other late defections to the race and the addition of runners that really didn't have a chance in the race, made this year’s Kentucky Derby field very bizarre at best!
After following this race for 25 years, the evolution of looking at this race and making a selection has become very different as the years have gone by. Back when I was learning the game between 1986 through 1990, it was all about who sounds the best. Jockeys and the horse’s name were the way I went when selecting my Kentucky Derby horse. When I started looking more at the past performances and prep races around 1991 and more was put into who I pick for the Run for the Roses. It was also about the time that I listened more to the handicapping pundits. In recent year’s (the last decade) I started to look at this race more like every other race ran on any given day.
I would take a stand against prohibited favorites like Big Brown two year’s ago and look to runners that were a “square” price like Barbaro. I was willing to go off the board a bit with horses like; Read the Footnotes and Regal Ransom at huge prices, but to no avail. The last decade I’ve chosen three Kentucky Derby winners and the previous 15 years before, just one (Spend a Buck). The focus on this race in recent years was more of looking late in the process than sticking to first opinions leading up to the race. Like with age, things become clearer and less confusing.
After what went down the past six days, it became clear to me that only a few runners in this year’s field of 20 have a legitimate shot to win the race. The first group I “tossed” consisted of eight runners. Most of them were speedy runners, polytrack or turf runners and horses never proven at a route distance. These horses are; Make Music for Me, Backtalk, Dean’s Kitten, Homeboykris, Line of David, Discreetly Mine, Conveyance and American Lion. The group will NOT be use in any of my derby plays. Next up are the “five” horses that I’ll be using in exotic plays, underneath horses that I think can win. Paddy O’Prado, Stately Victor, Dublin, Noble’s Promise and Jackson Bend aren’t going to win, but could hit the board in my opinion. This leaves the “magnificent seven” – Awesome Act, Lookin at Lucky, Devil may Care, Mission Impazible, Super Saver, Ice Box and Sidney ’s Candy. These are the seven that have a “fighter’s chance” to gain the winner’s circle.....in my opinion.
While, everybody wants to race in the Kentucky Derby …..realistically, only a dozen deserve to be in this race. Lots of dreams, but when reality sets in…..only a special horse can win this race. But, then again…..Mine that Bird won at 50-1 last year. I guess….never mind!
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