This year’s Kentucky Derby field has one horse that stands out “head and shoulders” over his 19 other rivals. Usually the history of this race past several years doesn’t include horses with such raw talent as Eskendereya has shown. The Todd Pletcher trainee has two “monster” races leading into this year’s “Run for the Roses”. A winner by daylight in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Wood Memorial, Eskendereya should be no more than 5-2 at best and possibly under 2-1 at post time. Since 1979, only four favorites have won the Kentucky Derby and only Big Brown (2008) was under 5-2 closing odds. In fact, if you have been playing the Kentucky Derby runners under 5-2 odds, you’ve been really disappointed.
In the last 25 years, 11 horses have been 5-2 or less as betting favorites in the Derby. Two have been “odds on”, they were Easy Goer & Awe Inspiring entry (1989) and Arazi (1992) both were 4-5. Easy Goer ran 2nd in the Churchill mud and the European sensation Arazi was nowhere to be found. Both Snow Chief and Demon’s Begone were back to back runners just over 2-1 in 1986 & 1987. Snow Chief didn’t fire in the Derby (but did come back to win the Preakness) and Demon’s Begone bled in the ’87 edition and was pulled up. In 1990 , the undefeated South American invader; Mister Frisky put his winning streak on the line just under 2-1. Again, the “big” favorite disappointed his backers and the same would happen the following year with Hansel in 1991. Six out of seven years in a row, the major betting choice was unable to win the Kentucky Derby.
Holy Bull would be the next horse to be tripped up on a sloppy Churchill strip in 1994. But then it would be seven years before another prohibited Kentucky Derby favorite would lose. In 2001, Point Given who had never really ran a “bad race” waited until the Kentucky Derby to run his worst of his career and off the board. It was found out years later that Point Given was not at the top of his game going into the Kentucky Derby and suffered the consequences. The same fate would be for Empire Maker in his quest of the Derby in 2003. A hoof problem cause him only to get the place spot versus Funny Cide that year. But just like Point Given, Empire Maker would become a Triple Crown race winner in the Belmont Stakes five weeks later.
Fusaichi Pegasus gets an “honorable mention” since he was 2.60-1 in odds and captured the Kentucky Derby in 2000 and became the first winning favorite in 21 years. Big Brown two years ago, caught an easy field and was much the best just under 5-2. So, if you think that Eskendereya at 5-2 odds or less winning the Kentucky Derby is a good bet….think again. It was just five years ago when Bellamy Road was near that 5-2 price and came off a similar victory as Eskendereya did in the Wood Memorial. The outcome was not a pretty one when; he faded to 7th and then was on the shelf until the Travers Stakes that year. The last race for Eskendereya, he wore front bandages for the first time. Todd Pletcher said it was only because of the race surface at Belmont Park that he wanted to protect the horse’s shins. This may be the case, but after his last two “lights out” races and now facing 19 other horses on a quirky Churchill Downs track….I’ll pass on him at such odds. I’m not saying that he’s not the best horse on paper. But, it is the Kentucky Derby and looking at the past track record of low priced favorites, he’s no different than any of the rest.
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