We have two major prep races left this weekend and it will be three weeks from this year’s Kentucky Derby . This year there was an unusual amount of horses with aspirations to race at Churchill Downs the first Saturday in May. This along with many contenders staying healthy throughout the Triple Crown trail, there is only a few spots left to make it into the field of twenty runners. Horses with graded stake earnings both as a two year old and three year old are the money counted toward a spot in the starting gate. Some of the “late bloomers” in these prep races are coming off either maiden victories or allowance wins. It’s these horses that may be “out the outside, looking in" when the money totals are added up for the derby.
As of today, there are five runners racing today that HAVE enough earnings to make the field of twenty (Noble’s Promise, Dublin , Interactif, Aikenite & Make Music for Me). This group has a safety net if they DON’T finish in the top three of their prep races. There are 11 others that NEED top three or better finish. This is a usually large amount this year with hopes to make it into the Kentucky Derby field.
Two of the most important of these runners who are currently “on the outside, looking in” are also two three year olds that I’ve been quite high on this derby trail. Odysseus who is racing in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland sits at number #22 on the list. He caught my eye in his last start the Tampa Bay Derby with a very courageous move between horses in the stretch and winning the race with the bob on the wire. He’ll need at least a fourth place finish or a third place finish to clinch a spot in the field of twenty. Anything less making his first start on polytrack today will cost him dearly. In the Arkansas Derby , the Todd Pletcher runner; Super Saver who was third behind Odysseus in the Tampa Bay Derby is in the 25th position. It’s the same story for him also, at least 4th and in the field with a show position finish. Unlike the connections of Odysseus, Todd Plecther has several others runner who have already made the field.
Last year, if your horse had at least 100,000 in graded stake earnings, it was a cinch to make the twenty horse field. This year, you are sitting in 34th position. There are even four horses listed that have NO graded stake earnings going into today’s two races and next week’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. Last week, the connections of Caracortado and Alphie’s Bet saw their Kentucky Derby dreams go up in smoke with off the board finishes in the Santa Anita Derby . The main reason, they did not have enough graded stake earnings even though they have proven themselves as two of the better three year old runners along the trail this year.
With Eskendereya and Lookin at Lucky, the top two Kentucky Derby runners are locked into the field along with most of the major prep race winners. The other 18 horses currently listed want to go, so the runners this week have to be in the top three places or will come up short. There will be some disappointed connections that will miss the cut. One thing that it will assure though is, the field for the Preakness Stakes two weeks after the Kentucky Derby should be a full one. Even if the field of twenty horses racing in the Kentucky Derby gets cut in half from the grueling mile and a quarter distance factor, there will be plenty on the waiting list to run then. But, most have Derby dreama and want to come to the party. Only a chosen few with the "money" can.
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