We are exactly one month away from the first Saturday in May and the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby . The next two weeks are full of important prep races for the “Run for the Roses” and this weekend’s three prep races include the top two leaders on the board for this year’s race.
First up is the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct going the mile an a eighth distance. Here the “leader of the pack” is entered versus five other foes; Eskendereya. This Todd Pletcher trainee won the Fountain of Youth Stakes in exciting style, but decided to skip the Florida Derby for this spot. Currently NOT in the top 25 of graded stake earners for the Derby, he’ll need at least a top 4 finish in this race to secure a spot in this year’s Kentucky Derby field. This should be no problem for the “odds-on” favorite in the 86th running of this race. The battle for 2nd choice in this race will come down between Jackson Bend (2nd to Eskendereya in the FOY) and Awesome Act, who was the winner of the Gotham Stakes the prep for this event. Also included is Tampa Bay shipper; Schoolyard Dreams who lost a close photo last time out in the Tampa Bay Derby . The field is rounded out by the two rank outsiders; Most Happy Fella and Carnivore.
With seemly just an in-the-money finish for Eskendereya, I’ll try to beat the big favorite with the Tampa shipper; Schoolyard Dreams. I loved his race at Tampa Bay and even more, love the horse who beat him by a whisker that day; Odysseus. My second and third choices are Eskendereya with Jackson Bend. I’m under the opinion that Awesome Act may “bounce” off that big effort “off the plane” in the Gotham Stakes.
The Illinois Derby at Hawthorne Park has eight “second level” three year olds entered. A mixed of New York , California and a tepid morning line favorite from Delta Downs makes up this group. Also there are a group of runners trying “real dirt” for the first time coming off synthetic races. Once again, I’ll try to beat the morning line favorite; Backtalk. The Graham Motion trainee; Turf Melody is my top pick at 6-1 morning line odds. The three year old son of Maria’s Mom has raced eight different racetracks in his eight race career and this will be his ninth different today. Last out he ran well behind Awesome Act in the Gotham Stakes and will be a factor late if the fractions are quick up front. For second, I’ll go with the California shipper; Dave in Dixie. He was no factor in his last start on the polytrack at Santa Anita in the San Felipe Stakes, but before that finished well for 2nd going a mile and a sixteenth distance. But like my top selection, he is a closer and will need pace also adjusting to the natural dirt surface. The three remaining horses I’ll use in my exotic plays will most likely battle for the top three wagering spots; Yawanna Twist, Backtalk and American Lion.
In the final prep race for today and last one on the west coast in California , ten are entered in the Santa Anita Derby with one runner that sticks out among the rest. Lookin at Lucky currently number two on the list of top three year old runners behind Eskendereya looks like he has this group of runners over a barrel. The prohibited morning line favorite returns to polytrack after winning on dirt in his seasonal debut at Oaklawn in the Rebel Stakes. Already with enough graded stakes earnings in the bank, he’ll only have to run good to be in the starting gate on May 1st. His main danger and horse I’ll put ahead of him is the speedy Sidney’s Candy. Winner of the San Felipe, he’ll be the one to catch and try to stretch out his speed to this route distance. Alphie's Bet, Caracortado and Setsuko round the runners I’ll use underneath the top two choices. Next week, we wrap up the prep season with the Arkansas Derby and Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland.
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